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Plain strategies with expected positive value

Plain strategies with expected positive value
A plain strategy takes advantage of the imperfections of the market.
We call this technique "plain" because the used tactic is always the same for every match.
There are plain strategies in bets, but are they worth?
by Paulo Rebelo   |   comments 0

I started to understand the reason why so much pressing in wanting a video with me working and sentences such as “if you show how you do it, I can do it too” or “what is the miracle formula that you use?”
Is it possible to win money in a long term by not studying the teams, the game or the market?
The answer is yes…

Is it possible to apply mathematical formula and this happens; you do that and win money?
The answer is yes…

The justification is the following: the market is faulty, meaning, the odds that are spread in the market will not always be the correct ones, and advantage might be taken from those market flaws.

I give as example the only plain strategy that I knew before joining the forum: Studies show that in average, in every 1000 races about 3,4 times are won by horses that were traded at 1 for 1000. This suggests that if you do 1000 bets of 1€ in horses that were traded at 1000, we’ll win in 3,4 times and we’ll have a 2.400€ profit. All this with analyze of the races, markets or whatever!

I confess that amazed me the possibility of having these types of strategies in football. Some people say that they exist… In my point of view, there are a few that are well justified and that really seem to have the long term positive Expected Value.

It’s necessary to clarify the following:

  • I don’t use that type of strategies. I obtain more through the game and market analyses.
  • I studied in college these type of strategies for stock market. There is an academicals debate about plain strategies in stock market.

Do they really exist?

The answer that seems to gather more consensus is the following: Exists, meaning that is possible to win money through a mathematical way in the share market with strategies such as: if this happens, we do that and win money. However, if we add the opportunity cots, they won’t compensate. Being that if we add the lost time to the market flaw search, the risk taken and the money that is not being profitable in other application, means they’re not worth it.

The base concept of this conclusion is the risk adjusted profitability concept (about which a video is promised).

Transposing this to gambling…Even though I know that it’s possible (more than that, probable) to win money in horse bets if it’s done 1000 bets at 1€, I’ve never done this because:

1 would force to lose a lot of time (to do 1.000 bets),
2 because it’s not assured that I can make money (probable, but not assured)
3 and because to do it, I must have money available that won’t be for example, profiting in stock shares

Now, analyzing football, my position is this:

For this specific subject, I can give my contribution as this type of strategies is suitable to my gambling profile.

But as I said before, each person has its distinct gambling profile. It’s perfectly possible for someone to have a profile that fits these strategies, more precisely:

    1 that has time and the required patience to apply this type of long term expected positive value strategies.
    2 that have risk profile that allows losing money a few times, but winning even fewer times and (relevantly) a lot of money.
    3 that had long term money available…

To these, I invite you to share your strategies with someone that has a similar profile. I also invite the followers to share their experiences and results.


It’s important to warn people that: Even still, there are no strategies…

    1…miracle. Meaning, no strategies that ALWAYS assure profit. What exist are strategies with a long term positive expected value.
    2…don’t require effort. At least, it’s necessary to search markets with certain type of characteristics.
    3…that warranty return without investment. Being, it is necessary to have available money to invest in a long term to be able to take out long term profit.

Good luck!