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Cheering and full stadium win a game? Pandemic brought new numbers

Cheering and full stadium win a game? Pandemic brought new numbers
Post pandemic statistics shows that football has undergone significant changes.
by Academia   |   comments 0

The most precious asset a football club can have is its supporter. Directors, coaching staff, players, all come and go, even though many of these remain in history. But the fan will be there, decade after decade renewing his passion for the team. Along with the fans, another important factor that marks the identity of a club is its stadium. Is there anything better than our home? Place where we feel protected, strong, and of which we have full knowledge. In the case of a football stadium, that piece of grass that players know as the back of their hand.

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The two together serve as fuel for the home team to win a match, this is undeniable and the numbers prove it. But some things have changed, and the pandemic has changed that data, brought new statistics, and the advantage of a team playing inside their home is no longer as it was before. In betting this also influences, and the player needs to be attentive to recognize whether that game has value within a betting site.

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On average, almost half of the matches end in victory for the home team. The visitor is left with only a quarter of that use. But is there an explanation for this? Although it is not an exact formula, some facts contribute to these numbers. The crowd's cheer serves both as an incentive for its athletes and intimidation for the rival team. The knowledge of the pitch and adaptation to the floor, in addition to the references of the stadium, also collaborate for those who train and play weekly in that place. And there is another extremely important factor in all of this: the referee.
For some reason, and again the crowd pressure comes into this, the referee tends to be more benevolent towards the home team. He does not score fouls and does not punish players in the same proportion that he applies to visiting team athletes. The psychological of a human being has pre-arranged ways to act in these cases, and within a football match it is no different.
All of our analysis is being proven in the post-pandemic championships. The strength and use of a home team are no longer the same without the factors mentioned above. In Europe, in the main leagues we already have data that show this difference in the competitions that were completed in the last few months. And we can guarantee that this new season will remain the same.
In the German championship, the home teams won an average of 43% of the games before the pandemic. After closed gates, that number plummeted to an incredible 21%. If we add up all the divisions, the numbers become closer, but still, the home team's triumphs fell 6%. La Liga, Serie A and Premier League have numbers that also show a drop in the visiting team's advantage, proving that it is not restricted to just one country or competition.
If we take more specific data, we can also see differences. The home teams no longer kick the same amount scores, and the corners in favor have decreased. There are 13.1 submissions before the pandemic versus 12 post-pandemic submissions. The corners, on the other hand, dropped from 5.62 to 5 in total. These statistics represent a 5% decrease in the number of goals scored, since more submissions and more corners in favor, in practice, result in greater chances of the ball in the net. The performance of the referees has also changed. The teams that own the matches started to receive more fouls, for example.
Finally, these changes were also felt in bookmakers. Bettors began to analyze and find value in odd’s corresponding to draws or in favor of the visiting team. Often the market has not yet adapted to the change, being a good opportunity for the player to read and find value in that game. Another determining example is that bookmakers are already calculating winning expectations for teams that own the stadium with much smaller numbers. The planet has changed in the pandemic, dear reader, and football is not a world apart.

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