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Randomness and effectiveness in sports betting

Randomness and effectiveness in sports betting
Understanding how randomness and effectiveness relate will be important on your betting journey.
by Academia   |   comments 0
Tuesday, June 8 2021

One of the challenges in the life of a bettor is knowing how to recognize and differentiate how much randomness was contained in your bet, and how much efficiency on your part was applied in evaluating that event. Testing how much of your gains, as well as your failures, are due to these elements, will be important for your development on this journey.

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In general, the bets are formed by success and losses, it is basically a business of results and possibilities. A player's routine is to look for the most exact possible probabilities to generate an expected value on that bet, but in the end, the bettor usually only evaluates win or loss, without being able to measure its accuracy in that study, likewise, which of these occurrences could be considered random so that the result was not what was expected.

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Studies show how the human mind acts in the evaluation of randomness. Measuring luck or bad luck in a bet, for some mathematicians, is confirmation of a lack of in-depth knowledge about something. In this way, randomness could be treated as an illusion. Others go on the side of conformity, stating that it is impossible to know these facts with a high degree of precision, and not because of a person's lack of knowledge or preparation, but because fundamentally this is the reality of the nature of things. Thus, if we cannot measure something right now, from facts that are happening in front of our eyes, how would it be possible to predict future events, such as in a bet, and to what extent can we measure the lack (or not) of effectiveness in this case?
 
Therefore, given these limitations, it would not be absurd to consider that there is a relationship of randomness in this environment, although we do not like to describe it as luck or bad luck, as we believe that these are simplistic evaluations that many bettors are based on, without really try to understand the dynamics and the paths that need to be followed for success in betting.
 
In order not to be stuck with these types of assessments, several methods have already been created to evaluate the accuracy and effectiveness of the predictions that are made when betting on an event. Still, even the highest-profit players recognize that, even if they are at a higher level when measuring the odds of winning an event, “chance” also accompanies them, as this is linked to sports in general. This is one of the reasons why there is so much talk about long-term betting, because if measured in long-term intervals, randomness does not affect the same way, as defended and proven in the law of large numbers.
 
We can exemplify this in the game of heads or tails, which gives you 50% for each option, but if you play in a range of twenty times, it can perfectly well happen fifteen results for one side, and only five for the other. The greater the number of releases, the closer to the 50% margin this result will come, a thesis proven in thousands of mathematical and science studies. This facilitated the creation of several methods and theorems, which aim to give greater clarity to a bettor, not letting him fall into fallacies or blinded by randomness, leading to losses, often with no return.
 
As much as this requires a lot of the technical capacity of a bettor to be able to understand and measure these elements, the mental side is also very important, as unexpected situations, and in this case "random", are part of human life. However, we often misinterpret, believing we have control of a situation, and, in fact, they are uncontrollable at many times, even in bets.

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