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Converting Odds to Probabilities

Converting Odds to Probabilities
We'll show you how to turn odds into percentage probabilities.
by Academia   |   comments 0

You access the bookmaker's website, choose a game and face a multitude of odds. After this sequence, you must have already questioned what they represent in terms of percentage probabilities, that is, what is the chance of that event occurring in the match, according to the odds. This is a question of the vast majority of bettors, and today we will teach how to convert using decimal odds.


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Before showing how the world of odds works, it is important to emphasize that the values ​​obtained do not necessarily represent the real chance of that happening. You will be the one who will make this assessment, and this is called finding value in an odd. You can very well convert the odds of a Barcelona match and see that it arrives (according to the bookmaker) with a 75% chance of winning the match. But his analysis is that without Messi, with a team going through a crisis, playing against an opponent that is doing well in the league, the real chance is at most 60%.

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Therefore, the assessment of whether or not to bet on Barcelona becomes more didactic, with studies, projections, comparing the odds and concluding whether or not it is a good bet to make.
 
Decimal odds work as follows:
In this round of the Brazilian Championship, we will have São Paulo x Atlético Mineiro.
São Paulo: 3.00
Draw: 3.10
Atlético Mineiro: 2.30

 
To know what these odds represent in terms of probability, we must do this calculation: 1 / decimal odd and multiply by 100.
São Paulo: 1/3.0 = 0.333 x 100 = 33.33%
Draw: 1/3.10 = 0.3225 x 100 = 32.25%
Atlético Mineiro: 1/2.30 = 0.4347 = 43.47%
 
Note that the sum of the three results exceeds 100%, not being a result faithful to the chances of each option. This small difference is the margins that bookmakers place, so that they also get their commission with the bets placed.
 
This game does not have big differences in probabilities, as it is a close match, where more than one result is possible. Now, if you want to take a big favorite and see how much preference he has to win and compare with your analysis, let's take a game like this and calculate:
PSG: 1.14
Draw: 8.50
Montpellier: 15.00

 
Converting to percentage probability, let's do the calculation again:
PSG: 1/1.14 = 0.8771 x 100 = 87.71%
Draw: 1/8.50 = 0.1176 x 100 = 11.76%
Montpellier: 1/15.00 = 0.0666 x 100 = 6.66%
 
Neymar's PSG arrives with absolute favoritism in this match. There is a lot of questioning whether it is worth risking a good amount of money for such a low return. Many experts say that it is not a question of low odds or high odds, but rather whether they have value. If there is a big chance that the bet will come out winning, for the most varied reasons and analyses, it doesn't matter if it has an odd of 1.20 or 1.90. Obviously, each bettor has his way of interpreting this issue, and we don't even want to go into this merit, but just give an example of facts that are recurrent when evaluating an odd.
 
We take decimal odds as an example, as it is the most used in our culture. However, depending on the location and modality, the sites will use fractional odds. Despite being quite different visually, it is also possible to convert them, both to decimal odds and to percentage probabilities, as we have done throughout this article. If you step into the world of horse racing, you will find that most sites will use this format. Therefore, we will schedule here the commitment to bring you in detail how they work, so that you become an expert on this subject. Good luck!

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