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A Portuguese millionaire

Interview published on the weekly magazine Sábado on March 10th 2011.

"A single match can net me 25 thousand Euros."

"To make a profit I have to analyse everything: the teams, the stadia and the team's morale. You can issue thousands of orders per match."

Base criteria needed for a betting bot to be functional

A betting bot is nothing more than a computer program that bets on Betfair in our stead.

In this article I will not be talking about the programming aspect of which I know little about. Instead I'll be talking about the most important aspects you should take into account when thinking about creating a statistics based bot, before you go spending your time programming.

Strategy: Back the Under 2,5 after the first goal with protection

We should never refer to a bet as protection. The bet should be analysed separately and, if it has no value, should not be placed.

My advice is to introduce a qualitative analysis into this tactic and refine your entries to avoid placing bets mechanically on all situations.

Betting is fun

Paulo Rebelo's chronicle for Penthouse Portugal magazine, September 2012
"Everyone that gets into betting does so with the misconception that they will make a lot of money."

Liquidity in trading

To those who trade, liquidity is essential for two reasons:
1. First: because it guarantees that we will be able to buy and sell at the best prices.
2. Second: because it guarantees quick operations when we're looking to buy or sell.

How does Betfair’s cross-matching algorithm affect the order of the matched bets?

In what way does Betfair's algorithm know as cross-matching alter the matching order of the market?

Did this algorithm in any way affect the normal way of operating in which the first placed bets would be the first bets to be corresponded at that odd?

Which statistical data is worth analyzing before betting?

How far back is it worth going when analyzing statistical data? That depends on the teams!

Usually I go 3 years back at the most using the stats sheets available here at the academy. In some special cases I can go further back because there are some relevant pieces of data to be found there.

Back who is on top or lay who is behind in a match?

This is a question related with each bettor's risk profile. Personally I prefer to simultaneously go with the flow of the match and the market, so the answer is simple: I prefer to lay the team that is playing worse at the time of my bet.

Rational Intelligence versus Emotional Intelligence

If we manage to temper our work method and cognitive knowledge with an excellent emotional control, we are on our way to success.

This article is a short reflection about the importance of the Emotional intelligence on a trader's life.

How to deal with a red? Analyse, close the position and start over.

Before taking any action, when things go wrong it is important to find out what failed: totally wrong analysis, correct analysis and it was just part of the law of probabilities, bad luck...

Independently of what my conclusion to the above is, what I always do is close my position, every time.

 

Zapping

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